{"id":3445,"date":"2019-04-05T15:41:56","date_gmt":"2019-04-05T15:41:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.writersghana.com\/?p=3445"},"modified":"2019-04-05T15:42:06","modified_gmt":"2019-04-05T15:42:06","slug":"exposing-weak-research-fundamentals-part-2-to-potrog-and-the-economic-management-team","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/05\/exposing-weak-research-fundamentals-part-2-to-potrog-and-the-economic-management-team\/","title":{"rendered":"EXPOSING WEAK RESEARCH FUNDAMENTALS &#8211; PART 2 (TO POTROG AND THE ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT TEAM)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By Isaac Ato MENSAH<br> Accra \u2013 5 April, 2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-gallery columns-1 is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\"><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"483\" src=\"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Prez-Akufo-Addo-SONA-18-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"3449\" data-link=\"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/?attachment_id=3449\" class=\"wp-image-3449\" srcset=\"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Prez-Akufo-Addo-SONA-18-1.jpg 640w, https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Prez-Akufo-Addo-SONA-18-1-300x226.jpg 300w, https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Prez-Akufo-Addo-SONA-18-1-425x321.jpg 425w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Your Excellency <br>\nThe Economic Management Team <br>\nLadies and Gentlemen <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What we saw and heard from the town hall meeting, at the auditorium of the Ghana College of Physicians and Surgeons on Wednesday, can only happen in the land of make believe! <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let us examine three different sets of analyses in H.E. Dr Bawumia\u2019s written speech and see how soon we can find our way out of Neverland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2018Real GDP growth (Our ability to produce goods and services in the economy) declined from 9.1% in 2008 to 3.4% in 2016.\u2019 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Clearly, H.E. Dr Bawumia, the economist, should know that this kind of analysis will get him into trouble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even if the base years were the same, there comes a time when marginal changes to the base you have attained is difficult. Also, every economist or student of basic statistics knows that one percent of $10 billion  (Answer; $100 million) is bigger than 50 percent of $1million (Answer; $500K). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"420\" height=\"236\" src=\"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/peowater.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3452\" srcset=\"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/peowater.jpg 420w, https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/peowater-300x169.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 420px) 100vw, 420px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Again, the vice president\u2019s statement read, <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2018Rising public debt had pushed debt-to-GDP beyond the 70% threshold for comparable economies to 73.1%. As a result, Ghana was classified as a country at high risk of debt distress, a classification that we are still trying to change.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Respectfully, this is disingenuous. Every Economics student and indeed every logician knows that to be consistent one has to use the same GDP base to determine the debt-GDP ratio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) is the authorised agency to settle this matter. It is important at this stage, in order not to pollute the airwaves with noise, that the GSS gives the nation the Debt-GDP ratio using the previous  benchmark and the benchmark post re-basing of the GDP. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a matter of fact, the GSS does this analysis all the time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"259\" height=\"194\" src=\"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/images-11.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3454\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Again the vice president\u2019s written statement said:<br>\n\u2018The strong growth performance of the economy translated into a steady rise in the share of every Ghanaian in national output, which today at GHC9,864 is 30% higher than in 2016 (Figure 3).\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now let us round off this GDP per capita to 10,000 Cedis (USD,2000). That for 2016 therefore becomes 7,000 Cedis. If one is to use a weighting scale of the average Cedi depreciation rate\/exchange rate against the US dollar for example, for 2016 and 2018, the real GDP per capita will be known and any significant difference could be debated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Never in an Economics class has any lecturer agreed to such an analysis as was presented within the same paragraph without a weighting scale because it is misleading and does not present a true picture. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore the vice-president\u2019s written speech exposes him, the EMT and the current administration to embarrassment because cool heads are reading, listening and watching, and some of these are Economics students within the various political persuasions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Your Excellency <br> The Economic Management Team <br> Ladies and Gentlemen <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br> Let us turn our attention to the depreciation of the Cedi which is the main concern which prompted Wednesday\u2019s town hall meeting. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"297\" height=\"170\" src=\"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/images.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3451\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>On 1 July, 2007, when the Cedi was redenominated, one needed only 97 Pesewas (less than a dollar), to get one US dollar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Twelves years later one needs at least five Cedis to get the same one US dollar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the study of Economics, we never say the Cedi has lost over 100 percent of its value, but in English language we can say the Cedi is worthless. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>During the EMT, whilst the vice president was saying the fundamentals are strong, Yaw Osafo-Maafo, the Senior Minister, was agreeing with a questioner (who compared Ghana to South Africa) that trading in dollars in every corner of our towns by money changers despite numerous forex bureaux was a canker this nation has not been able to surmount. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>So respectfully which fundamentals are we referring to? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"1600\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/www.writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/WP_000128.jpg?fit=768%2C1024&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3456\" srcset=\"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/WP_000128.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/WP_000128-225x300.jpg 225w, https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/WP_000128-768x1024.jpg 768w, https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/WP_000128-413x550.jpg 413w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"194\" height=\"259\" src=\"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/images-9.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3457\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"276\" height=\"183\" src=\"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/images-12.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3459\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The kind of analysis we have seen  in the vice president\u2019s written speech \u2018can only happen in the land of make believe,\u2019 as my mentor is fond of saying when we are subjected to such shaky analysis &#8211; analysis not based on didactic rigour. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br> Your Excellency <br> The Economic Management Team <br> Ladies and Gentlemen <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What Are Fundamentals?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investopedia has clear answers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2018Fundamentals include the basic qualitative and quantitative information that contributes to the financial or economic well-being and the subsequent financial valuation of a company, security or currency. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Where qualitative information includes elements that cannot be directly measured such as management experience, quantitative analysis (QA) uses mathematics and statistics to understand the asset and predict movement.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br> Your Excellency <br> The Economic Management Team <br> Ladies and Gentlemen <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We at writersghana.com have taken up the vice president\u2019s call for a clean debate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We await your learned response. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thank you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Feedback; ato@writersghana.com; LinkedIn, Isaac Ato Mensah; Instagram, @Atomenswriters; Twitter, @atomens; Facebook, Isaac Ato Mensah; Telegram, Isaac Ato Mensah; Quora, Isaac Ato Mensah. WhatsApp (233) 020 022 0353. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Writers and Shakespeares Ghana Limited exist to be a moral and intellectual guide to the best practice of PR and integrated communications around the world, beginning with Ghana.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Isaac Ato MENSAH Accra \u2013 5 April, 2019 Your Excellency The Economic Management Team Ladies and Gentlemen What we saw and heard from the town hall meeting, at the auditorium of the Ghana College of Physicians and Surgeons on Wednesday, can only happen in the land of make believe! Let us examine three different sets of analyses in H.E. Dr Bawumia\u2019s written speech and see how soon we can find our way out of Neverland. \u2018Real GDP growth (Our ability to produce goods and services in the economy) declined from 9.1% in 2008 to 3.4% in 2016.\u2019 Clearly, H.E. Dr Bawumia, the economist, should<a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/05\/exposing-weak-research-fundamentals-part-2-to-potrog-and-the-economic-management-team\/\">Read More &rarr;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["entry","author-atowritersghana-com","post-3445","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>EXPOSING WEAK RESEARCH FUNDAMENTALS - PART 2 (TO POTROG AND THE ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT TEAM) - Writers &amp; Shakespeares Ghana Limited<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/05\/exposing-weak-research-fundamentals-part-2-to-potrog-and-the-economic-management-team\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EXPOSING WEAK RESEARCH FUNDAMENTALS - PART 2 (TO POTROG AND THE ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT TEAM) - Writers &amp; Shakespeares Ghana Limited\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Isaac Ato MENSAH Accra \u2013 5 April, 2019 Your Excellency The Economic Management Team Ladies and Gentlemen What we saw and heard from the town hall meeting, at the auditorium of the Ghana College of Physicians and Surgeons on Wednesday, can only happen in the land of make believe! Let us examine three different sets of analyses in H.E. Dr Bawumia\u2019s written speech and see how soon we can find our way out of Neverland. \u2018Real GDP growth (Our ability to produce goods and services in the economy) declined from 9.1% in 2008 to 3.4% in 2016.\u2019 Clearly, H.E. Dr Bawumia, the economist, shouldRead More &rarr;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/05\/exposing-weak-research-fundamentals-part-2-to-potrog-and-the-economic-management-team\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Writers &amp; Shakespeares Ghana Limited\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"http:\/\/facebook.com\/writersghana\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-04-05T15:41:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-04-05T15:42:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/writersghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Prez-Akufo-Addo-SONA-18-1.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Isaac Ato Mensah\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@Atomens\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Isaac Ato Mensah\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/writersghana.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/05\\\/exposing-weak-research-fundamentals-part-2-to-potrog-and-the-economic-management-team\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/writersghana.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/05\\\/exposing-weak-research-fundamentals-part-2-to-potrog-and-the-economic-management-team\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Isaac Ato Mensah\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/writersghana.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6d5e06f2d13570449d710057ff8ad663\"},\"headline\":\"EXPOSING WEAK RESEARCH FUNDAMENTALS &#8211; 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Let us examine three different sets of analyses in H.E. Dr Bawumia\u2019s written speech and see how soon we can find our way out of Neverland. \u2018Real GDP growth (Our ability to produce goods and services in the economy) declined from 9.1% in 2008 to 3.4% in 2016.\u2019 Clearly, H.E. 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